QNB, the Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa, has organized an exclusive dinner for a selected number of its customers with the stars of the Paris Saint-Germain football club. The dinner was held at the Victoria Lounge of the Grand Heritage Doha Hotel.

The exclusive event was attended by Paris Saint-Germain players Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Benjamin Stambouli, Kevin Trapp, Gregory Van Der Weil, and Adrien Rabiot, and they were joined by 25 lucky QNB customers who won the chance to dine with these prominent stars. The event came as part of QNB’s efforts to always come up with innovative ways to reward its customers and the Group’s keen interest in sports as part of its comprehensive Corporate Social Responsibility policy.

In addition to having dinner with the stars, and having the opportunity to take photos with them, the event also saw the distribution of gift items to the winners, including official Paris Saint-Germain jerseys, mini balls, and scarves, which the winners were able to have them signed by the players. This prominent event comes as another testament to the strong partnership between QNB and Paris Saint-Germain, which started in 2012 with a sponsorship arrangement with the French Ligue 1 champions, in alignment with QNB’s expansion strategy, and expanded to shirt sponsorship in 2013.

Under the terms of the existing sponsorship deal, QNB also benefits from advertising at the club’s Parc Des Princes Stadium in Paris as well as having its logo appear on the back of all Ligue 1 match tickets and other similar sponsorship benefits. Combined, this gives QNB the international exposure of having its brand appear regularly in front of a global audience, thereby helping it to further elevate its brand visibility to target audiences.

The stars of the famous French football club, Paris Saint-Germain, are currently in Doha in preparation for their friendly match against Italian club Inter Milan at Jassin Bin Hamad Stadium on 30 December 2015. QNB continues to be a strong supporter of sports in Qatar and abroad as part of its rich Corporate Social Responsibility strategy that highlights the Group’s keenness on giving back to society and promoting development across its international network of operations.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,000 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,350 machines.

Oil prices had an eventful year in 2015. They began the year by recovering some of the losses incurred in the second half of 2014, rising from USD 49 per barrel (/b) in mid-January to USD 68/b in early May. Subsequently, the recovery fully evaporated with oil prices falling to USD43/b by the end of August. A period of stabilisation ensued in the following two months as oil traded in the USD 45-55 range.

Since early November, however, oil prices resumed their decline and they are currently trading around mid-30s. The latest price decline can be attributed to a mixture of demand and supply factors.And while some analysts have highlighted the role of speculators in the recent price drop, we see little evidence supporting this claim.

Oil prices fell by 26.2% from USD51/b in early November to US37.3/b on 31 December. Demand factors are the main reason behind the fall as they were responsible for 69% of the decline. Annual growth in oil demand is estimated to have slowed sharply to 1.3m barrels per day (b/d) in Q4 2015, down from 2.2m b/d in Q3. In addition, the International Energy Agency revised down its estimate for global demand in Q4 2015 by 200k b/d. Almost all of this revision is due to North and South America, where Canada and the US seem to be experiencing record-breaking warm weather for this time of the year. This has reduced their demand for heating energy, leading to the decline in oil prices.

While demand forces were the dominant driver of the recent decline in oil prices, supply factors also played a role as they were responsible for 31% of the fall. This was partly due to OPEC’s decision to maintain its production at current levels in its meeting on 4 December, which led to a 1.9% decline in prices on the day. In addition,potentially earlier-than-expected lifting of sanctions on Iran also contributed to the decline.

The role of speculation was highlighted by some analysts as a factor behind the recent decline in oil prices. These analysts point out that bets made by hedge funds on a further decline in oil prices are at a near record high. However, we see little evidence supporting this claim for two reasons. First, hedge funds make bets on financial paper (like futures contracts and options) and rarely, if ever, take physical delivery of the commodity. Therefore, they do not impact the real demand of oil and, as a result, do not impact its price.

Second, while hedge funds positions are correlated with oil prices, movements in oil prices tend to precede changes in hedge funds positions, not the other way round. This suggests that speculative positions do not drive oil prices but instead are driven by prices. This means that hedge funds follow a “momentum” strategy in which a decline in prices lead them to bet on further declines in the future.

In conclusion, it appears that a mixture of demand and supply factors rather than speculation were behind the latest episode of oil price decline. Ruling out speculative forces in influencing oil prices does not mean that the market is any less complex. Multiple factors could drive supply and demand and some, such as weather or geopolitics, are rather hard to predict. Oil markets had a memorable year in 2015 and they enter 2016 full of questions and uncertainty.

Oil markets have been over-supplied since the beginning of 2014. The build-up of inventories has led to a sharp decline in oil prices from USD115 per barrel (/b) in mid-2014 to USD34 currently. But the latest data show that the oil market is slowly adjusting to the demand/supply imbalances. Low prices are encouraging higher energy consumption and also pushing high-cost suppliers out of the market. The progress of this adjustment process as well as the impact of new shocks will determine oil prices in 2016. Under our baseline view of continued demand growth, US supply cuts, higher Iranian exports and sustained production from the rest of OPEC, we expect the Brent crude oil price to average USD44/b in 2016.

Oil markets are currently over-supplied by around 1.6m barrels per day (b/d). Four questions are likely to determine how this excess supply will be cleared and therefore shape oil markets in 2016. First, will the strong demand growth (which reached 1.6m b/d in 2015—a five-year high) persist into 2016? Second, how will the high-cost US shale producers respond to low prices which are making some of their businesses unviable? Third, when will the sanctions on Iran be lifted and how much more oil can Iran produce once they are lifted? Fourth, will the rest of OPEC continue producing at current levels or will geopolitical factors disrupt their production?

To assess how these questions will impact oil prices, we consider three scenarios. Each scenario gives a combination of views on the four questions.

1. The baseline scenario. Under this scenario, we forecast oil demand to rise by 1.2m b/d in 2016, in line with the International Energy Agency (IEA). China and other developing Asian countries will continue to be the main driver of global demand growth. Chinese consumers’ rising demand for cars and transportation is outweighing slowing demand for energy in the industrial sector. We also assume that US shale oil production will be reduced by 0.4m b/d as some high-cost producers are driven out of the market. Consistent with the IEA, we assume a gradual ramp up in Iranian oil production, with Iran ultimately adding 0.6m b/d to global oil supply by June 2016 following the lifting of the sanctions in the second quarter of the year. Finally, we stipulate that that OPEC’s crude oil production—excluding the additional Iranian supply—will be maintained at current levels of 31.7m b/d.

Under this scenario, the excess supply in the market is likely to be reduced to 0.8m b/d. Based on the historical relationship between changes in excess supply and oil prices, we expect oil prices to average USD44/b in 2016, down from an average of USD54/b in 2015.

2. The bearish scenario. This scenario assumes a more subdued demand growth of around 0.9m b/d, equivalent to that of 2014. It assumes that US shale producers will not cut their output and manage to maintain production at current levels. Sanctions on Iran are assumed to be lifted in the first quarter of 2016 under this scenario. This will allow Iran to ramp up its production by 1.0m b/d by the end of the year, the upper end of the range of analysts’ estimates. Other OPEC countries are also assumed to pump out more oil, adding an average of 0.7m b/d.

Under this scenario, the market imbalances will widen and excess supply will increase to 2.2m b/d.  As a result, oil prices are expected to average USD36/b in 2016, a decline of nearly a third compared to the 2015 average price.

3. The bullish scenario. This scenario stipulates that the strong 2015 demand growth of 1.6m b/d will persist into 2016. US supply is assumed to be cut by a more-than-expected 0.6m b/d. Iran is assumed to add only 0.3m b/d by end-2016. Production from other OPEC countries is expected to be reduced slightly, maybe due to geopolitical or security factors. Under this scenario, the market will rebalance in 2016 with demand outgrowing supply by 0.3m b/d. As this starts to work out the large inventories built up over the last couple of years, oil prices will average USD50/b in 2016.

Conclusion. Recent turmoil in the oil markets is evidence that they are notoriously hard to predict. One way to deal with the significant uncertainties present in the market is to consider different scenarios. Our attempt to quantify how different views impact oil prices shows that oil prices are expected to average USD44/b in 2016 under our baseline case. A more bearish scenario, in which demand growth is more subdued than the baseline while supply growth is more robust, will result in oil prices averaging USD36/b. On the other hand, a more bullish scenario, in which we get deeper supply cuts and stronger demand growth, could lead to oil prices averaging USD50/b. 

QNB, “The Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa”, announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with Bedaya Centre for Entrepreneurship and Career Development to train 100 Qatari students across the Bank’s divisions. Under the terms of this MoU, QNB Group’s Learning and Development Department will collaborate with Bedaya by training up to 100 students per year in different divisions of the Bank, where they will learn and develop working skills required in the Bank’s various departments. QNB’s employees will share their success stories, offering exciting incentive and inspiration to these youth.

Commenting on the signing of the MoU, Ms. Nada Al Ansari, Executive Manager – Centres of Excellence, said: “Bedaya Centre is one of our major partners in the private sector, and we are pleased to have this fruitful partnership which comes in the interest of Qatari youth as well as the two sides, as it will train national cadres and allow us to benefit from the skills of the experienced ones in order to develop and motivate an entire generation.” For her part, Mrs. Reem Al Suwaidi, General Manager – Bedaya Centre, said: “We, at Bedaya Centre, are aspiring to invest in this new cooperation relationship with QNB in its efforts to develop young people in all fields, by training 100 students and graduates in various divisions of the Bank, and helping them identify the job market’s requirements.”

She added: “We will also participate in training graduates on the banking business skills as part of this graduate training program, and we will choose the best elements to join QNB Group.” Mrs. Al Suwaidi also pointed out that the MoU has all the requirements of a fruitful partnership in terms of stimulating professional development in the financial sector. The training, which targets both fresh graduates and current students, will also engage the trainees in programs dedicated to new recruits.

QNB is always keen on supporting Qatari youth, who are a crucial part of the Group’s robust CSR strategy, helping them develop their skills and assisting them in making the right career decisions on their professional journey. Bedaya Centre for Entrepreneurship and Career Development, one of QNB’s major partners from the private sector, is a non-profit organization established as a joint venture between Qatar Development Bank and Silatech Qatar that provides career assistance services to youth in Qatar. The Centre has a mission to place Qatar’s youth potential into suitable careers and transform their ideas into sustainable businesses.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,000 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,350 machines.

QNB Group, a leading bank in the Middle East and Africa, continued to record robust growth in profitability, with Net Profit for 2015 amounting to QR11.3 billion (USD3.1 billion), up by 7.7% compared to 2014.

Based on the strong financial results for 2015 and consistent with QNB Group’s aim of maximising returns to shareholders, the Board of Directors is recommending to the General Assembly the distribution of a cash dividend of 35% of the nominal share value (QAR3.5 per share) anda bonus shares of 20% of the share capital (Two shares for every ten shares). The financial results for 2015 along with the profit distribution are subject to Qatar Central Bank (QCB) approval.

The Group’s prudent cost control policy and strong revenue generating capability allowed it to maintain an efficiency ratio (cost to income ratio) of 21.5%, which is considered one of the best ratios among financial institutions in the region.Total assets increased by 10.7% from December 2014 to reach QAR539billion (USD147.9 billion), the highest ever achieved by the Group. This was the result of a strong growth rate of 14.8% in loans and advances to reach QAR388billion (USD106.7 billion).

The Group was able to maintain the ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans at 1.4%, a level considered one of the lowest amongst banks in the Middle East and Africa, reflecting the high quality of the Group’s loan book and the effective management of credit risk. The Group’s conservative policy in regard to provisioning continued with the coverage ratio reaching 127% in December 2015. At the same time QNB Group increased customer funding by 10.5% to QAR395billion (USD108.6 billion). This led to the Group’s loan to deposit ratio reaching 98%.

Total Equity increased by 7.1% from December 2014 to reach QAR62billion (USD17.0 billion) as at 31 December 2015. Earnings per Share reached QAR16.1(USD4.4) compared to QAR14.9 in December 2014. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) calculated as per the QCB and Basel III requirements stood at 16.3% as at 31December 2015, higher than the regulatory minimum requirements of the Qatar Central Bank and Basel Committee. The Group is keen to maintain a strong capitalisation in order to support future strategic plans.

To further enhance the shareholders equity and continue to maintain a capital adequacy ratio higher than the regulatory minimum requirements of the Qatar Central Bank and Basel Committee, the Board of Directors agreed to recommend to the General Assembly to approve the issuance of capital instruments that qualify as Tier 1 additional capital and/or Tier 2 capital instruments in accordance with Qatar Central Bank and Basel Committee requirements, and authorise the Board of Directors to determine the size, timing, pricing and other related terms and conditions.

As a result of the Group’s high credit ratings and outstanding asset quality, it was selected as one of the world’s 50 safest financial institutions by Global Finance.

Based on the Group’s continuous strong performance and its expanding international presence, QNB improved its ranking within the Brand Finance Global Top 500 Banking Survey 2015 and is now the biggest bank brand by value in The Middle East and Africa. The QNB Ranking moved significantly from 101st (Brand Value: USD1.8 billion in 2014) to 79th (Brand Value: USD2.6 billion in 2015) further recognising QNB’s improved standing and strong brand recognition.

In December 2015,QNB Group entered into a definitive agreement with the National Bank of Greece for the acquisition of its entire stake comprising 99.81% in Finansbank A.Ş (Finansbank) in Turkey. QNB Group expects to finalise the transaction during the first half of 2016. Also during the second half of 2015, QNB Group received approval from the Saudi Cabinet to open a branch in the Kingdom and the process of opening that branch has begun.

QNB Group is present, through its subsidiaries and associate companies, in more than 27 countries and 3 continents providing a comprehensive range of products and services. The total number of staff is more than 15,200 operating from over 635 locations and with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

The Aspire Banks League has now concluded its eleventh week, with Qatar Central Bank (QCB) holding onto its position at the top of the league following a comfortable win against Qatar Development Bank (QDB), who currently sit at the bottom of the table with just three points. During the week, Qatar National Bank (QNB) recovered from its most recent defeat against QCB with a strong 2-1 win against Barwa Bank, allowing the team to climb up to second place in the table with 27 points.

QCB is closely followed by Barwa Bank, who currently sit in third place with 24 points, Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB), who have 21 points, Masraf Al Rayyan, who have 19 points, and Doha Bank, who have 17 points. After maintaining the top position in the league for nine weeks running, QNB fell from its first place ranking after a match against QCB in week 10. The forthcoming matches are expected to be highly competitive, given the small differences between the points each team has.

The Aspire Banks League, which follows a points-based ranking system, launched in October 2015 and will conclude in February 2016. The league is being played over a total of 91 matches every Saturday and Sunday in the indoor football pitch at the Aspire Dome.

QNB, the Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa, has cooperated with Qatar’s  Ministry of Environment to organize an awareness campaign for campers during Qatar’s current camping season.

The campaign, which carries great importance during the Qatari winter camping season which began on 1 November 2015 and will continue until 31 March 2016, aims to spread awareness among campers of the proper guidelines to be followed during their camping trips to ensure their own safety and protect the environment from harm. It aims to promote compliance with camping, environmental, and safety guidelines, as well as instructions on how to use first aid, should need arise.

This cooperation comes as part of QNB’s keenness to safeguard the safety and interests of its clients and the communities in which it operates, and as part of its robust CSR program, by which the Group strives to give back and provide beneficial assistance to the community in Qatar and across its international network. QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

QNB, ‘The Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa’, was distinguished as the “Best Trade Finance Provider in Qatar 2016” by Global Finance Magazine at the closing luncheon of the BAFT (Bankers’ Association for Finance and Trade) Global Annual Meeting at L’Hotel du Collectionneur in Paris.

QNB was named the ‘Best Trade Finance Provider in Qatar 2016’ based on input from industry analysts, corporate executives and technology experts. Criteria for choosing the winners included: transaction volume, scope of global coverage, customer service, competitive pricing and innovative technologies. Global Finance Magazine is a leading International publication recognized as a reliable source of news and analysis of market insights around the world. Its target audience includes Chairmen, Presidents, CEO’s, CFO’s, treasurers and other senior financial officers responsible for making strategic decisions at multinational companies and financial institutions.

QNB’s trade finance services support public and private sector institutions, multinational corporations, companies, traders and service providers that regularly conduct business within Qatar and the region. QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

QNB, the Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa, in collaboration with Ooredoo, Qatar’s leading communications company, announced the launch of a mobile package dedicated exclusively to QNB First members at a monthly fee of only QR 350.

The QNB First Ooredoo Plan provides a premium and an unmatched experience that includes unlimited local calls and SMS, 60GB of local data,  five hours of international calling, five hours of roaming incoming minutes, 100 roaming minutes and 1GB of roaming data, in addition to one free premium Al-Maha Airport Service per year. To avail this offer, which runs from the 24^th of January until the 24^th of April, QNB First members can simply show a valid QNB First Credit or Debit Card at any Ooredoo Store located at all major malls across Qatar.

This step strongly highlights QNB’s commitment to providing its premium banking members with the best products and lifestyle privileges across its network of operations, to meet the daily requirements of this unique base of its customers. Ooredoo, one of QNB’s strong and long-term partners, continues to provide services that enhance the Bank’s customer experience, thanks to its state-of-the-art Supernet network and innovative services as the country’s pioneer communications organization.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

Ooredoo’s popular Mobile Money App ‘Ooredoo Money’ has undergone a massive upgrade this week, enabling customers to now create and change their secure mPin, use the Ooredoo Exchange to transfer money to any bank account, and estimate exchange rates and amount sent via the application.

With the Ooredoo Money App, which was launched late last year, customers can check their finance, transfer money instantly around the world through MoneyGram, and complete daily tasks such as purchasing Hala top-ups (with 10% extra credit), data recharges (with 25% extra bonus), Ooredoo Passport services and pay Ooredoo bills. Thanks to the upgrades, Ooredoo Mobile Money customers can now also use the Ooredoo Exchange via the App, enabling users to send money directly to bank accounts in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Nepal.

To ensure that customers get the best value for money, Ooredoo has also introduced the ‘Exchange Rate Estimate’ and “Send Amount Estimate” feature on the app, allowing users to see the fee and exchange rates, as well as the amount needed to be sent against a particular expected amount in local currency, before transferring money internationally. For users in Qatar, pre-registered QNB Mobile Payment customers can now send transactions through the app easier and faster than ever before, enabling fund transfers into any mobile money wallet directly from their QNB Bank account. To access this feature the Ooredoo Money App needs to be accessed from the mobile number registered for the QNB Mobile Payment service.

Ooredoo has also enhanced the app to enable first time users to efficiently generate the mPIN and change it to their personal and easy to remember PIN, ensuring security from the very first use. The upgrade to Ooredoo Mobile Money is the latest enhancement to the service, which is becoming the most popular cashless payment method in Qatar. Customers can register for Mobile Money for free with a valid Qatar ID at any Ooredoo Shop, by dialling *140#, or by simply downloading the free “Ooredoo Money” App on their mobile and following the simple on-screen registration instructions.

Once registered, customers can cash-in money for free in their mobile wallet using any of over 200 Ooredoo Self-Service Machines available throughout Qatar. Deposits can also be made through Ooredoo Shops or direct transfer from any QNB Bank account through QNB Mobile Payment service. 

For more information, customers can ask about Mobile Money in an Ooredoo Shop or visit the Mobile Money section on the Ooredoo website at http://www.ooredoo.qa/en/omm#

QNB, The Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa announced the names of winners of its recently launched  campaign “ATM USE & WIN’’. Each winner has received a new iPhone 6, in a draw that  was performed under Ministry of Economy and Trade supervision.

The lucky winners have participated in a special campaign for both QNB and non QNB customers, between October 1^st and December 30^th, 2015. The “ATM Use & Win” campaign attracted lots of participants who performed any transaction with a minimum of QR 50, for Cash withdrawals, Bill Payments and Top-ups, to get a chance of winning a new iPhone 6. QNB provides the best internet banking services to its clients in Qatar, delivering premium quality products and services, including flexibility to transfer worldwide through Western Union services, secured online payments and premium services from PayPal, and many other convenient and secured solutions via mobile and internet services.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

QNB, the Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa, received the 2015 Elite J.P. Morgan Quality Recognition Award for MT103/ MT202 category of payments, with excellent ratings of 99.80% for the MT202 and of 99.24% for the MT103 respectively. Mr. Abdulla Mubarak Al Khalifa Executive General Manager – Chief Business Officer- received the award on behalf of QNB at the bank’s head office, in attendance of senior management representatives from both sides.

The Elite Quality Recognition Awards are given to institutional clients of J.P. Morgan that demonstrate best-in-class operational efficiency. Less than 1% of their clients are able to meet the strict criteria for the awards each year. JP Morgan commended the quality of QNB’s operational management which places the Bank in the highest percentile of global financial institutions to demonstrate Treasury and Commercial payments efficiency. These include financial institutions from Qatar as well as international banks.

MT103 and MT202 are Straight-Through Processing (STP) mechanisms that provide financial services providers with tremendous benefits, including greatly shortened processing cycles, reduced settlement risk and lower operating costs. These transactions utilize modern electronic instruction systems such as SWIFT and each numbered Message Type (MT) serves a specific purpose. The MT103‘Elite’ Quality Recognition Award is given only to J.P. Morgan clients achieving an STP rate greater than 99.0%, with a minimum transaction volume of 10,000 transactions during an assessment year. The MT202‘Elite’ Quality Recognition Award honour clients achieving an STP rate greater than 99.7% over at least 8,000 transactions during the year.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

Financial markets have experienced a meltdown since the beginning of the year. The decline impacted all risky assets, including global equities (down 7.9% in the first three full trading weeks of the year), emerging markets’ bonds and currencies (1.2% and 3.0% respectively) as well as commodities (6.9%).

Just like August last year, the turmoil was triggered by a devaluation of the Chinese currency, which fell by 1.6% against the US dollar in the first week of the year. Although the yuan has subsequently stabilised, markets have remained nervous about the uncertainty surrounding China’s exchange rate policy. The question is whether the Chinese authorities can manage a gradual devaluation that is beneficial for the economy, or if devaluation will be chaotic with negative economic implications.

A gradual devaluation of the currency could be beneficial for three main reasons. First, it would help exporters, boosting economic growth. Until recently, the Chinese yuan was closely linked to the US dollar. Expectations of tighter monetary policy in the US relative to the rest of the world have led to the appreciation of the dollar against most currencies. This has pulled up the value of the yuan, leading to its rise against most currencies. On a trade-weighted basis, the yuan has strengthened by 20% since 2012. This has hurt exports and, in turn, growth. The Chinese economy’s 2015 growth was the slowest in 25 years, with real GDP expanding by only 6.9%. A devaluation of the yuan could restore some of the lost competitiveness to Chinese exports, and invigorate growth in the future.

Second, a devaluation of the currency could reduce the need to sell foreign currency reserves to support the yuan. Chinese reserves declined by over USD100bn in December 2015, and by a total of USD700bn since their mid-2014 peak. This happened as the authorities tried to support the currency in the face of capital flight. And while China still possesses considerable reserves amounting to USD3.3tn, these could be depleted if capital flight continues at the current rate. Allowing more flexibility in the exchange rate may help preserve China’s reserves.

Third, a more flexible exchange rate would also reflect the new requirements for a more liberalised currency following the International Monetary Fund’s decision to include the yuan in its Special Drawing Rights basket, supporting the goal of the authorities to internationalise the currency.

However, the devaluation of the currency also comes with its own set of risks. Chief among them is the risk of widespread corporate defaults. China has accumulated nearly USD1.5tn of foreign-currency debt over the last eight years. A devaluation of the currency would make servicing this debt more burdensome, which could result in a financial crisis that could bring the economy down. Second, a devaluation could be interpreted as a sign of an underlying weakness in the Chinese economy. This could lead to continued turmoil in financial markets with negative repercussions in China and the rest of the world, given China’s size in the global economy, its contribution to the world’s economic growth, its dominant role in trade and its importance as a major consumer of commodities.

Finally,a devaluation could delay China’s planned transition towards a more consumer-based economy. A significant weakening of the currency would make imports more expensive, reducing the purchasing power of consumers. The risk-benefit analysis of China’s devaluation outlined above suggests that a small, controlled devaluation could benefit Chinese exports and growth. But this needs to be done without triggering a large devaluation or a currency crisis in China with unpredictable repercussions. When it comes to the fate of their exchange rate, the Chinese authorities do not have much room for manoeuvre.

QNB, the Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa, has  been recognized  for its  Best SME Customer Service and Best Managed Advisory Service in Qatar  by  the Banker Middle East Magazine.

QNB’s Group Corporate Banking received the Best SME Customer Service award, while its Treasury and Investment Banking Department received the Best Managed Advisory Service award, marking QNB’s outstanding customer service and performance. The awards were received as part of the 2015 iteration of The Banker Magazine’s Middle East Qatar Product Awards, which are designed to identify and reward quality and excellence in financial services in the  booming Qatari banking sector.

This latest award for QNB tops off what has been a fantastic year for the Bank which has seen it awarded a number of awards throughout the past 12 months as well as having enjoyed continued financial success. The Banker is one of the world’s premier banking and finance resources, bringing it with a wealth of knowledge and experience. Further, The Banker is a key source of data and analysis for the Banking industry worldwide. A frequent recipient of The Banker magazine’s awards, QNB is always committed to providing outstanding banking services to all its clients in Qatar and abroad across its international network by constantly introducing new and innovative products and services specially tailored to serve them and fulfill their requirements in all banking categories.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

QNB Group, a Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and Africa,  held  its Ordinary and Extraordinary General Assembly meetings, during which the Group's Financial Results for the year ended 31st December 2015 were approved.

The General Assembly also ratified all remaining items on its Agenda of both the Ordinary and Extraordinary General Assemblies, including the proposal by The Board of Directors to distribute a cash dividend of 35% of the nominal share value (QAR3.5 per share) and a bonus shares of 20% of the share capital (Two shares for every ten shares). The meeting also approved the appointment of Ernst &Young as External Auditors for the year 2016. During the meeting, H.E. Ali Shareef Al Emadi, The Chairman of QNB Group's Board of Directors, presented both an overview of the Bank's activities and financial results for 2015.

H.E. The Chairman stated that QNB Group’s success in maintaining momentum across all its activities was reflected in the strong 2015 financial results. Driven by the dual considerations of on-going domestic and international expansion along with the continuing adoption of a prudent approach to risk management, QNB had re-affirmed its status as the leading financial institution in the Middle East and Africa Region. H.E. The Chairman also provided an overview of the Bank’s business plans for the year of 2016. Retaining its leading position through diversifying income sources and expanding the range of activities across the QNB Group was of primary focus. The ability to meet shareholders’ expectations remained a core consideration for 2016.

The strong and robust nature of QNB Group’s performance in 2015 was reflected in the delivery of record financial results. Net Profit rose to QR11.3 billion, up by 8% compared to 2014 and Total Assets increased by 11% from December 2014 to reach QAR539 billion. Based on the Group’s continuous strong financial performance and its expanding international presence, QNB is currently ranked as the most valuable bank brand in The Middle East and Africa, with a current world ranking of 79 in 2015 and a brand valuation of $2.6 billion according to Brand Finance Magazine.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,200 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.

Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has continued to lead the charts of the Aspire Banks League with 30 points following the conclusion of the twelfth week, followed by Qatar National Bank (QNB) in second place. Competitions within week 12 saw QCB earn an 8-3 win in its match against the International Bank of Qatar, and Barwa Bank winning its match against Al Khaliji Bank with a score of 9-3, bringing its total to 27 points. Meanwhile, Qatar Islamic Bank (QIB) passed Al Ahli Bank with a 3-0 win, bringing its total to 24 points. The match between Doha Bank and Qatar International Islamic Bank resulted in a draw.

In another tough defeat, Qatar Development Bank (QDB) lost its match with QNB 7-1, allowing QNB to maintain its second place ranking with 30 points. The participating teams are looking forward to the next and final round of matches during week 13, which will witness intense competition between QCB, QNB, Barwa Bank and QIB all competing for first place. The finals will take place next Sunday February 7 at 6:00PM in Aspire Dome.

Oil prices had an eventful year in 2015. They began the year by recovering some of the losses incurred in the second half of 2014, rising from USD 49 per barrel (/b) in mid-January to USD 68/b in early May. Subsequently, the recovery fully evaporated with oil prices falling to USD43/b by the end of August. A period of stabilisation ensued in the following two months as oil traded in the USD 45-55 range.

Since early November, however, oil prices resumed their decline and they are currently trading around mid-30s. The latest price decline can be attributed to a mixture of demand and supply factors.And while some analysts have highlighted the role of speculators in the recent price drop, we see little evidence supporting this claim.

Oil prices fell by 26.2% from USD51/b in early November to US37.3/b on 31 December. Demand factors are the main reason behind the fall as they were responsible for 69% of the decline. Annual growth in oil demand is estimated to have slowed sharply to 1.3m barrels per day (b/d) in Q4 2015, down from 2.2m b/d in Q3. In addition, the International Energy Agency revised down its estimate for global demand in Q4 2015 by 200k b/d. Almost all of this revision is due to North and South America, where Canada and the US seem to be experiencing record-breaking warm weather for this time of the year. This has reduced their demand for heating energy, leading to the decline in oil prices.

While demand forces were the dominant driver of the recent decline in oil prices, supply factors also played a role as they were responsible for 31% of the fall. This was partly due to OPEC’s decision to maintain its production at current levels in its meeting on 4 December, which led to a 1.9% decline in prices on the day. In addition,potentially earlier-than-expected lifting of sanctions on Iran also contributed to the decline.

The role of speculation was highlighted by some analysts as a factor behind the recent decline in oil prices. These analysts point out that bets made by hedge funds on a further decline in oil prices are at a near record high. However, we see little evidence supporting this claim for two reasons. First, hedge funds make bets on financial paper (like futures contracts and options) and rarely, if ever, take physical delivery of the commodity. Therefore, they do not impact the real demand of oil and, as a result, do not impact its price.

Second, while hedge funds positions are correlated with oil prices, movements in oil prices tend to precede changes in hedge funds positions, not the other way round. This suggests that speculative positions do not drive oil prices but instead are driven by prices. This means that hedge funds follow a “momentum” strategy in which a decline in prices lead them to bet on further declines in the future.

In conclusion, it appears that a mixture of demand and supply factors rather than speculation were behind the latest episode of oil price decline. Ruling out speculative forces in influencing oil prices does not mean that the market is any less complex. Multiple factors could drive supply and demand and some, such as weather or geopolitics, are rather hard to predict. Oil markets had a memorable year in 2015 and they enter 2016 full of questions and uncertainty.

QNB, “The Leading Financial Institution in the Middle East and North Africa”, announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with Bedaya Centre for Entrepreneurship and Career Development to train 100 Qatari students across the Bank’s divisions. Under the terms of this MoU, QNB Group’s Learning and Development Department will collaborate with Bedaya by training up to 100 students per year in different divisions of the Bank, where they will learn and develop working skills required in the Bank’s various departments. QNB’s employees will share their success stories, offering exciting incentive and inspiration to these youth.

Commenting on the signing of the MoU, Ms. Nada Al Ansari, Executive Manager – Centres of Excellence, said: “Bedaya Centre is one of our major partners in the private sector, and we are pleased to have this fruitful partnership which comes in the interest of Qatari youth as well as the two sides, as it will train national cadres and allow us to benefit from the skills of the experienced ones in order to develop and motivate an entire generation.” For her part, Mrs. Reem Al Suwaidi, General Manager – Bedaya Centre, said: “We, at Bedaya Centre, are aspiring to invest in this new cooperation relationship with QNB in its efforts to develop young people in all fields, by training 100 students and graduates in various divisions of the Bank, and helping them identify the job market’s requirements.”

She added: “We will also participate in training graduates on the banking business skills as part of this graduate training program, and we will choose the best elements to join QNB Group.” Mrs. Al Suwaidi also pointed out that the MoU has all the requirements of a fruitful partnership in terms of stimulating professional development in the financial sector. The training, which targets both fresh graduates and current students, will also engage the trainees in programs dedicated to new recruits.

QNB is always keen on supporting Qatari youth, who are a crucial part of the Group’s robust CSR strategy, helping them develop their skills and assisting them in making the right career decisions on their professional journey. Bedaya Centre for Entrepreneurship and Career Development, one of QNB’s major partners from the private sector, is a non-profit organization established as a joint venture between Qatar Development Bank and Silatech Qatar that provides career assistance services to youth in Qatar. The Centre has a mission to place Qatar’s youth potential into suitable careers and transform their ideas into sustainable businesses.

QNB Group’s presence through its subsidiaries and associate companies extends to more than 27 countries across three continents providing a comprehensive range of advanced products and services. The total number of employees is more than 15,000 operating through more than 635 locations, with an ATM network of more than 1,350 machines.

Oil markets have been over-supplied since the beginning of 2014. The build-up of inventories has led to a sharp decline in oil prices from USD115 per barrel (/b) in mid-2014 to USD34 currently. But the latest data show that the oil market is slowly adjusting to the demand/supply imbalances.

Low prices are encouraging higher energy consumption and also pushing high-cost suppliers out of the market. The progress of this adjustment process as well as the impact of new shocks will determine oil prices in 2016. Under our baseline view of continued demand growth, US supply cuts, higher Iranian exports and sustained production from the rest of OPEC, we expect the Brent crude oil price to average USD44/b in 2016.

Oil markets are currently over-supplied by around 1.6m barrels per day (b/d). Four questions are likely to determine how this excess supply will be cleared and therefore shape oil markets in 2016. First, will the strong demand growth (which reached 1.6m b/d in 2015—a five-year high) persist into 2016? Second, how will the high-cost US shale producers respond to low prices which are making some of their businesses unviable? Third, when will the sanctions on Iran be lifted and how much more oil can Iran produce once they are lifted? Fourth, will the rest of OPEC continue producing at current levels or will geopolitical factors disrupt their production?

To assess how these questions will impact oil prices, we consider three scenarios. Each scenario gives a combination of views on the four questions.

1. The baseline scenario. Under this scenario, we forecast oil demand to rise by 1.2m b/d in 2016, in line with the International Energy Agency (IEA). China and other developing Asian countries will continue to be the main driver of global demand growth. Chinese consumers’ rising demand for cars and transportation is outweighing slowing demand for energy in the industrial sector. We also assume that US shale oil production will be reduced by 0.4m b/d as some high-cost producers are driven out of the market. Consistent with the IEA, we assume a gradual ramp up in Iranian oil production, with Iran ultimately adding 0.6m b/d to global oil supply by June 2016 following the lifting of the sanctions in the second quarter of the year. Finally, we stipulate that that OPEC’s crude oil production—excluding the additional Iranian supply—will be maintained at current levels of 31.7m b/d.

Under this scenario, the excess supply in the market is likely to be reduced to 0.8m b/d. Based on the historical relationship between changes in excess supply and oil prices, we expect oil prices to average USD44/b in 2016, down from an average of USD54/b in 2015.

2. The bearish scenario. This scenario assumes a more subdued demand growth of around 0.9m b/d, equivalent to that of 2014. It assumes that US shale producers will not cut their output and manage to maintain production at current levels. Sanctions on Iran are assumed to be lifted in the first quarter of 2016 under this scenario. This will allow Iran to ramp up its production by 1.0m b/d by the end of the year, the upper end of the range of analysts’ estimates. Other OPEC countries are also assumed to pump out more oil, adding an average of 0.7m b/d.

Under this scenario, the market imbalances will widen and excess supply will increase to 2.2m b/d.  As a result, oil prices are expected to average USD36/b in 2016, a decline of nearly a third compared to the 2015 average price.

3. The bullish scenario. This scenario stipulates that the strong 2015 demand growth of 1.6m b/d will persist into 2016. US supply is assumed to be cut by a more-than-expected 0.6m b/d. Iran is assumed to add only 0.3m b/d by end-2016. Production from other OPEC countries is expected to be reduced slightly, maybe due to geopolitical or security factors. Under this scenario, the market will rebalance in 2016 with demand outgrowing supply by 0.3m b/d. As this starts to work out the large inventories built up over the last couple of years, oil prices will average USD50/b in 2016.

Conclusion. Recent turmoil in the oil markets is evidence that they are notoriously hard to predict. One way to deal with the significant uncertainties present in the market is to consider different scenarios. Our attempt to quantify how different views impact oil prices shows that oil prices are expected to average USD44/b in 2016 under our baseline case. A more bearish scenario, in which demand growth is more subdued than the baseline while supply growth is more robust, will result in oil prices averaging USD36/b. On the other hand, a more bullish scenario, in which we get deeper supply cuts and stronger demand growth, could lead to oil prices averaging USD50/b. 

QNB Group, a leading bank in the Middle East and Africa, continued to record robust growth in profitability, with Net Profit for 2015 amounting to QR11.3 billion (USD3.1 billion), up by 7.7% compared to 2014.

Based on the strong financial results for 2015 and consistent with QNB Group’s aim of maximising returns to shareholders, the Board of Directors is recommending to the General Assembly the distribution of a cash dividend of 35% of the nominal share value (QAR3.5 per share) anda bonus shares of 20% of the share capital (Two shares for every ten shares). The financial results for 2015 along with the profit distribution are subject to Qatar Central Bank (QCB) approval.

The Group’s prudent cost control policy and strong revenue generating capability allowed it to maintain an efficiency ratio (cost to income ratio) of 21.5%, which is considered one of the best ratios among financial institutions in the region.Total assets increased by 10.7% from December 2014 to reach QAR539billion (USD147.9 billion), the highest ever achieved by the Group. This was the result of a strong growth rate of 14.8% in loans and advances to reach QAR388billion (USD106.7 billion).

The Group was able to maintain the ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans at 1.4%, a level considered one of the lowest amongst banks in the Middle East and Africa, reflecting the high quality of the Group’s loan book and the effective management of credit risk. The Group’s conservative policy in regard to provisioning continued with the coverage ratio reaching 127% in December 2015. At the same time QNB Group increased customer funding by 10.5% to QAR395billion (USD108.6 billion). This led to the Group’s loan to deposit ratio reaching 98%.

Total Equity increased by 7.1% from December 2014 to reach QAR62billion (USD17.0 billion) as at 31 December 2015. Earnings per Share reached QAR16.1(USD4.4) compared to QAR14.9 in December 2014. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) calculated as per the QCB and Basel III requirements stood at 16.3% as at 31December 2015, higher than the regulatory minimum requirements of the Qatar Central Bank and Basel Committee. The Group is keen to maintain a strong capitalisation in order to support future strategic plans.

To further enhance the shareholders equity and continue to maintain a capital adequacy ratio higher than the regulatory minimum requirements of the Qatar Central Bank and Basel Committee, the Board of Directors agreed to recommend to the General Assembly to approve the issuance of capital instruments that qualify as Tier 1 additional capital and/or Tier 2 capital instruments in accordance with Qatar Central Bank and Basel Committee requirements, and authorise the Board of Directors to determine the size, timing, pricing and other related terms and conditions.

As a result of the Group’s high credit ratings and outstanding asset quality, it was selected as one of the world’s 50 safest financial institutions by Global Finance.

Based on the Group’s continuous strong performance and its expanding international presence, QNB improved its ranking within the Brand Finance Global Top 500 Banking Survey 2015 and is now the biggest bank brand by value in The Middle East and Africa. The QNB Ranking moved significantly from 101st (Brand Value: USD1.8 billion in 2014) to 79th (Brand Value: USD2.6 billion in 2015) further recognising QNB’s improved standing and strong brand recognition.

In December 2015,QNB Group entered into a definitive agreement with the National Bank of Greece for the acquisition of its entire stake comprising 99.81% in Finansbank A.Ş (Finansbank) in Turkey. QNB Group expects to finalise the transaction during the first half of 2016. Also during the second half of 2015, QNB Group received approval from the Saudi Cabinet to open a branch in the Kingdom and the process of opening that branch has begun.

QNB Group is present, through its subsidiaries and associate companies, in more than 27 countries and 3 continents providing a comprehensive range of products and services. The total number of staff is more than 15,200 operating from over 635 locations and with an ATM network of more than 1,390 machines.